Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Cyberwar issues

  • How would you draw the line between civil disobedience over Internet and hacktivism?
  • The 'cyberwar' seems to be only effective if the opponent has got high enough level of network infrastructure (no point in attacking Venezuela, Cuba or North Korea). How does this influence its applicability in future conflicts?

  • Abstract The goal of our paper is to find out the readiness in Estonia to raise awareness of cyber security related social engineering, especially among common people. We suggest that the awareness and understanding of online social engineering can raise Estonian defence potential to a new level. Future cyber-attacks may complement server attacks with human engineering and spreading misinformation in order to create incentives for treason or mutiny against the decisions of the state. Social engineering of information and people is one way to wage modern information war.
    We have conducted a study involving schoolchildren and ICT students as well as members of the Estonian Defence League Cyber Defence Unit (EDLCDU). The findings will suggest a way to carry out related training programmes or campaigns. The recommendations are useful for coordinating the efforts of the four Ministries involved, addressing the crossroads of technical cyber security, social interaction, communication and education.
    Our hypothesis is that in the cyber war situation when information is scarce and the circumstances are hard to understand, ordinary citizens (lay people) can turn against their government and critical services (e.g. public transport and infrastructure), carrying the conflict over from the cyberspace into actual space – but this kind of process can be largely prevented by proper policies as well as education.
    There are three ideas that contribute to the possibility of mass manipulation: we are all connected, tend to overreact and “with the right weather conditions, all the hell can break loose”. So the following points apply:
    • In the age of social networking, “who knows who” has gained major importance. The concept of “six degrees of separation” refers to the idea that everyone is on average approximately six steps away. Nowadays we see it happening in real social networks [1]. For example, I know my country’s political leader, who knows the President of the US, who knows everybody. So the steps can be even less numerous [2];
    • Positive feedback loops are well known to describe the dynamics of change in biological evolution. Today, the same effects are seen on the net: a small disturbance launches several opinions from others and the result will be greatly amplified [3, 4]. Sometimes it will not last long, but in case of larger public interest [5, 6] it can end up to be gathering to dance like a Michael Jackson [7]. Essentially the same process worked at the Bronze Soldier riots or more currently the Arabian Spring, Occupy Wall Street [8] or the on-going protests against ACTA [9];
    • Nowadays the police consider weather conditions as one of the key elements to influence the risk of massive unrest. The threat is lower when it’s too cold or too warm [10, 11].
    Kalev Leetaru, a computer scientist, has claimed that “pooling together the global tone of all news mentions of a country over time appears to accurately forecast its near–term stability, including predicting the revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, conflict in Serbia, and the stability of Saudi Arabia [12]”.
    Putting these three ideas together, we will get an explosive mix. For example, Mr Smith hears from a friend’s friend that the Euro is devalued in a few days. How would he act? When that information is fed to the public, how can government be quicker and more reliable than the biased (as seen by many people) mass media or other Web 2.0 tools and social networks? Also (and perhaps most importantly), who is the enemy to blame?
    Doing our research we used triangulation with an interview and a survey to get better understanding of human behaviour and attitudes towards cyber war issues in their life: stage I – an interview with three cyber security experts, where we also got input to the stage II questionnaire from; stage II – the focus group study. We used the open source web application called Limesurvey. We collected 98 responses in 2 weeks’ time; stage III – the results were analysed by five experts (2 representing education, 2 ICT, 1 legislation), using the group analysis method.
    The stage II focused on students (42): 27 from secondary school, others from university (8 ICT related); ICT experts (25): 6 were EDLCDU-related; and other adults (31): 14 education and 2 were EDLCDU-related. We used a survey with 37 questions divided on six sub-categories: general, government and cyberspace, cyber war means, ethics, incident response and background information. The data was collected using Likert scale [13] and Q Methodology [14] rankings plus open questions that were mainly used for clarification.
    The results were somewhat expected – the ICT people have heard of cyber war, others see it as related only to 'cyberspace and servers'. At the same time, the most crucial finding seems to be that both the lack of information and (even perceived) manipulation attempts from the government will raise unrest in society.
    We also see a problem when the media presents news originating from “an independent research agency” and it is believed to be reliable a priori – only a few people will search more information about the topic or think about how newspapers translate original texts or “lend”  coverage to each other (making it similar to the children's 'telephone game').
    Cyber war is in some ways alike to cyber bullying – it happens on the Net and is often believed to be separate from real life. But as there are links between real-life bullying and cyber bullying, there are links between cyber war and real life conflicts. When we see massive unrest in several countries, it has often started from the discussions on the Net where everybody can join – the positive feedback takes place. It is easy to think that cyber incidents are related only to servers and systems, but it is important to see that these attacks are more and more related to information manipulation, lack of information and affecting people.
    We also see children's dependence on the online needs and quick reaction to problems. When adults tend to wait before acting and are more patient then youngsters usually want quick and simple results and are not patient. It can be illustrated with two events in Estonian history spanning over more than a dozen of years - defending the TV Tower 1991 [15] and the Bronze soldier removal affair in 2007 - when schoolchildren and young adults were manifest in the streets. Young adults and students also formed the core of anti-ACTA protesters in February 11, 2012 [16].
    By raising awareness in e-safety and cyber war issues as well social engineering, less people will be affected by misleading information from any channels. Trusted and open government is also of vital importance. Awareness training should be carried out by specialists in that very area, not volunteers or different generic programs. When people are treated respectfully by the government sharing valid information, there will be no or less rallying in the streets during the next crisis. 
    Education in cyber defence should be a part of national curricula in elementary, secondary and university level. An interesting finding was that while people would like to have more practical skills to defend themselves and it is also seen as an opportunity to include NGO or ISP to the training process, government institutions were given preference over private enterprises. 
    Keywords- cyber security; social engineering; education policy
     


    [1]     J. Ugander, et alThe Anatomy of the Facebook Social Graph,Cornell University Library, NY, US. 2011

    [2]     L. Backstrom, et al,Four Degrees of Separation,Cornell University Library, NY, US. 2011

    [3]     T. Goetz,Harnessing the Power of Feedback Loops,Wired Magazine, Jun. 2011

    [4]     P. McRae,Argumentum ad infinitum: The complex nature of echoing voices on the Internet,Complexity Science and Educational Research (CSER), Vancouver, BC: University of British Columbia. 2007

    [5]     K. Lewis, (2010, Feb 11) The Network Effect [online] Available: http://www.kieranlevis.com/the-network-effect/

    [6]     L. Rosales, (2011, Oct 18) Anatomy of a social media chain reactioncase study [online] Available:  http://agbeat.com/real-estate-technology-new-media/anatomy-of-a-social-media-chain-reaction-case-study/

    [7]     D. Paap, (2009, Aug. 3) Dance Tributes Around the World for the Dance Legend, Michael Jackson [online] Available: http://movetheframe.wordpress.com/2009/08/03/dance-tributes-around-the-world-for-the-dance-legend-michael-jackson/

    [8]     Hundreds of Occupy Wall Street protesters arrested (2011, Oct. 2) BBC News US&Canada [online] Available:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15140671

    [9]     Acta: Europe braced for protests over anti-piracy treaty (2012 Feb. 6) BBC News Technology [online] Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16906086

    [10]  E. G. Cohn,Weather ans Crime,Brit. J. Criminol vol 30 no. 1. 1990

    [11]  P. Butke and S. Sheridan,An Analysis of Relationships between Weather ans Aggressive Crime in Cleavland, Ohio,Dep. Geography, Ken State Univerity, 2010

    [12]  K. Leetaru,Cultoromics 2.0: Forecasting large-scale human behaviour using news media tone in time and space,FM Vol 16 no 9 2011

    [13]  R. Kumar, Research Methodology, APH Publishing, 2005

    [14]  Z. Todd, Mixing methods in psychology: the integration of qualitative and practice, Psychology Press Taylor ans Francis Group, 2004

    [15]  Saatuslikud tunnid teletornis? (2006 Aug. 17) Maaleht [online] Available:  http://www.levira.ee/dyna/site/696est.html

    [16]  Tartu ACTA vastaste protesti lõpukõne: Siim Tuisk (2012, Feb. 11) Youtube [onlne] Available: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDz8MAG4jj4

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